Russia’s powerplay – how long and how far?

August 28, 2008 — Leave a comment

Will it come to a new (cold) war?

Lately the happenings in Georgia cannot be ignored. In the west most media paint the situation off like it’s Russia that is unreasonably showing off their power. Yes they invaded the provinces of South Ossetia, but didn’t Georgia start the disproportionate violence in this province? But then again, it was an internal domestic dispute, right? Is it so easy to judge the actions of Russia? I don’t think so …

Let’s look elsewhere in the world
Quite recently the people in Kosovo also wanted to liberate themselves from Serbia. I can remember that conflict lasted for years and eventually EU / NATO supported the splitup from Serbia. So what kind of geopolitics played a role there? Was it really democracy? I’m not sure how everything went there, but surely it’s known that Russia did not agree in this case. But surely the West went ahead …

And what about the situation in Iraq? It’s very obvious that it’s about the oil. Even if this war is costing hundreds of billions of dollars and is not helping the Iraqi’s to get united, the world still wages war in this country. The main purpose was to get rid of Saddam right? And now it’s used as a warground to fight … who? But again here, it seems that the West does it without really collaboration with the Russians.

So what about African countries? In the last century it was mainly the West that ‘helped’ the African countries with different forms of help, usually with strict requirements and conditions. And in the meanwhile it was quite obvious that many Western industries took advantage of the situation. Many drugs / medicines were tested on the African people that could not be easily tested on humans in the West. And what about the blood diamonds, I’m quite sure that the Western diamond industry is profiting from it, even if it was Leonardo di Caprio who was the messenger to the big public. So who is stopping the West there? Maybe the Chinese will …

It’s quite logic that Russia shows power
So if there are two bullies in the neighborhood and one is openly active, how can the other bully be called a bully if he doesn’t show his power? Of course Russia will show off their muscles, especially now their a world power again. And because of the rising power of the West in the past decades, logic tells that Russia will balance it by showing their power. But how far will they go?

If the West would not have been so anxious to take so many actions without Russians support, then probably it might not have come to this. I really hope that the West this time really learns to balance their power with all upcoming countries. But then again Russia should learn from the mistakes of the West and not push it too far themselves …

What if it comes to Ukraine?
I just hope they won’t destabilize Ukraine, but again logic tells me that this might happen. I think many people in Eastern Ukraine might want to be part of Russia again. And we all know that there are factions in the government that would not mind such a situation. But this time, if such things happen, I’m quite sure the Ukrainians will just be beaten that easy like the Georgians. No, I think Ukraine is bigger and will give a much harder fight. I just hope it will not come this far …

The world always balances itself
Personally I think there will always be more ‘bullies’ in the world, to keep the world in a better balance and to make sure that 1 bully doesn’t think he can be the strongest. And even if it would be the case, others will always fight back. The past has always shown this, it’s in the human nature to eventually fight back and to be free. Sometimes it takes decades, sometimes centuries, but eventually all ruling civilizations lose their dominant power.

Nowadays powers like Russia, India and China are definitely world players next to the combination of Europe and the US. I just hope that with the current prosperity all of these powers will see less reason to dominate the other for more prosperity. I think there is enough money in the world to go around. Just look at how easily the West lost > 1.000 Billion USD during the current credit cricis. So let us all keep focusing on economic growth for all, so that we will all seen how much we will lose in case of WOIII.

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